As this thread has shown the answer will always be 1/2 if you do not force a 50% chance to be 100%. Thus if you “force” every Boy/Girl family to be a Boy then the answer to the simple question will be 1/3. If you don’t it will be 1/2.

In the Tuesday Boy scenario, if you force the Boy over the Girl AND force Tuesday over the other day of the week when you have a BB family with two different days, then you end up with 13/27.

If you force the Boy over the Girl and do NOT force the Tuesday, then the answer remains at 1/3.

If you force neither the boy nor the Tuesday then the answer is always 1/2, and in truth this is the most sane answer.

]]>Even Odds | Grumpy Old Man

]]>—which is to say, yet again, that you can “question-beg” me and “internal contradiction” me and “Joseph Bertrand” me or whatever else takes your bloviatory fancy, but until you show a rudimentary comprehension of the basis on which I maintain what I do about the puzzle-asking fathers, you’re just compounding your hilariously obstinate folly.

]]>More contrived self-congratulatory bullshit. Your pompous pontifications reveal that you haven’t the first clue how I come by my “assumptions” as you label them.

You’re getting funnier by the day.

]]>Yup, I guess the fundie-cult proselytising of *The One True Probability Gospel According To JeffJo*™ compels you to think you’re the only show in town. That, plus a hearty dose of the academic’s smug conceit.

The telling difference is that I’ve conceded several times that P = ½ is correct if one accepts your assumptions, whereas you’re not even prepared to consider my argument. Instead, you just drone on endlessly with your irrelevant mantra, thereby revealing either an inability or an unwillingness to understand the basis of my argument.

Guess whose mind is *really* closed here, *boet*. But win you must at all costs. You’re a total hoot, you are.

Read your post and evaluate yourself against the charges you level at me, *boet*.

As said many, many times before: Until you engage with the content of my argument, you’re just blowing your usual pretentious and irrelevant smoke.

]]>BB fathers will TELL YOU about a boy, GG fathers will TELL YOU about a girl, and {BG,GB} fathers will split evenly about which to TELL YOU about. Each will then ASK YOU a question appropriate to what they TOLD YOU.

Your answer to the puzzle begs the question (“begs the question” means “Assumes in the premise what is hoped to be established in the conclusion”) by making what the father asks the premise. But you are so entrenched in this conclusion-based premise that I hold no hopes that you will even consider any other point of view.

]]>I understand your dim-witted argument perfectly well: Of all one-of-each fathers, on average half will ask about a boy and the other half about a girl. On that ** critically flawed assumption**, P = ½ is the correct answer. I have admitted that point several times and have never denied it — on that

But you must do whatever strokes your ego for you, *boet*.